RecountFlorida.Info

Florida Op-scan tapes found in trash?
UC Berkeley team: "mistabulation" in Florida a 99.8% certainty
U.PA prof: FL/OH/PA exit poll anomaly is 250 million to one
Orlando Weekly: "Was it hacked? ... Florida Fiasco II"
Eight Florida counties stalling audit?
Other Florida questions
Links - Vote 2004 issues

Flipping Votes In Florida 2004?

Graphs 1-2 display 2004 data from Table 1 below on votes for president v. registrations by party.
Graphs 3-4 display 2004 data from Table 2 below on votes for president v. votes for senator by party.
Graphs 5-6 display 2000 data on votes for president v. votes for senator by party (from data at  http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/).

Graph 1 displays ratios between year 2004 votes and registrations by party. As shown in Graph 1 and Table 1, 
Republican presidential votes exceeded registrations in 45 of 52  Op-scan  counties versus 3 of 15 Touchscreen counties.  In contrast
Democratic presidential votes exceeded registrations in 2 of 52 Op-scan counties and 2 of 15 Touchscreen counties.

Graph 2 displays ratios of Republican to Democratic values shown in Graph 1. As shown in Table 1 and discussed further below, the "net gain" to Republicans (presidential votes relative to registrations) was nearly 3/4 million votes  (about 10% of the Florida Democratic + Republican vote total) -- comprised of 652,087 in Op-scan counties (18.8% of the Republican + Democrat vote total); and 97,880 in Touchscreen counties (2.4% of the Republican+Democrat total).

Graph 3 displays ratios between year 2004 votes for president and votes for senator by party
Republican presidential votes exceeded Republican senatorial votes in 52 of 52 Op-scan counties and 14 of 15 Touchscreen counties.
Democratic presidential votes exceeded Democratic senatorial votes in 7 of the 52 Op-scan counties and in 8 of 15 Touchscreen counties.

 Graph 4 displays ratios of Republican to Democratic values  shown in Graph 3.  As shown in Table 2, Republicans enjoyed a "net advantage" of nearly 300,000 presidential votes over same-party senatorial votes. 

Graph 5 displays differences between year 2004 votes for president and senator by party.
Graph 6 displays differences between Republican and Democratic values in Graph 5, exhibiting a  net advantage" to Republicans of  300,000 presidential votes over same-party senatorial votes.

Graphs 7 and 8 display data for president v. senate from year 2000, exhibiting anomalies similar to those in Graphs 3  and  4:
Republican presidential votes exceeded Republican senatorial votes in 52 of 52 Op-scan counties and 11 of 15 Touchscreen counties.
Democratic presidential votes exceeded Democratic senatorial votes in 1 of the 52 Op-scan counties and in 7 of 15 Touchscreen counties.

Graph 9 displays differences between votes for president and senator by party, in year 2000.
Graph 10 displays differences between Republican and Democratic values in Graph 9, exhibiting a  net advantage" to Republicans in year 2000 of  300,000 presidential votes over same-party senatorial votes.

It has been  noted that a number of Florida counties with predominantly Democratic registrations have reported predominantly Republican votes for president (Graphs 1 & 2; Table 1).  This seeming "flipping" of registrations and votes has been generally attributed to a "dixiecrat" phenomenon; a number of people particularly in rural areas are reportedly still registered Democratic, but tend to vote Republican in presidential elections.

A similar "bias" for the Republican presidential candidate versus the Republican senatorial candidate, and corresponding deficit on the Democratic side, is also noted in both years 2004 (Graphs 3-6, Table 2) and 2000 (Graphs 7-10, Table 3).

It is difficult to go further back historically, insofar as there was not a  U.S. Senate race in Florida in 1996, and the 1992 presidential race involved a strong showing by third-party candidate Perot.

Notwithstanding questions raised in the above-bulleted links, statistical similarities in anomalous patterns in presidential v. senatorial candidates in both years 2000 and 2004 may be viewed as arguing in favor of the integrity of the reported data for  2004, including by extension that exhibited in Graphs 1 and 2; alternatively these may be indicative of similar counting errors and/or manipulations occurring in both years 2000 and 2004.

Also noted are distinctly differing patterns in op-scan  v. touchscreen counties for both Republicans and Democrats, as highlighted above and exhibited in Graphs below.  How  much of this might be attributed to a "dixiecrat"  or  other explanation is not clear.

Graph 1:

Graph 2:

Graph 3:

Graph 4:

Graph 5:

Graph 6:

Graph 7:

Graph 8:

Graph 9:

Graph 10:

Table  1: 2004 Voting and Party Registration for the 2004 Presidential Elections in Florida